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Who will stay? Who will go? Mike Gillis’ Offseason Game Plan

Tonyz Tanti — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 08:13:31 +0000

The countdown to the free agent frenzy is on. July 1st marks the first day of free agency 2010 and the Canucks are sure to be busy. The Canucks currently have five regulars scheduled to become unrestricted free agents and four regulars set to become restricted free agents. Clearly not all of them will be back and some new players will be added via free agency. There is also the potential for young players to step into the lineup and more trades to happen. So what will Mike Gillis do? Well, lets try to figure that out right now:

Unrestricted Free Agents:

Willie Mitchell: Perhaps the most valuable Canucks defenceman over the last number of years, most in the know are assuming that the Port Alberni native’s days are numbered in Vancouver. Mitchell, 33, made $3.5 million last season and should still have a couple more very productive years left. If not for his concussion history, I think the Canucks would be wise to re-sign him at the same money for a couple more years. The question is what will he command on the open market? He’ll probably land somewhere in the neighbourhood of $4 million on a short term deal or $3.5 on a 3-4 year deal. I don’t think he’ll be back, but I think they should try to keep him.

Pavol Demitra: Needless to say Demitra will not be back. He had a disappointing two seasons in Vancouver and isn’t a top six forward anymore with the players they have.

Andrew Raycroft: The one-way deal for Cory Schneider means that Raycroft won’t be back, though he was probably destined to go somewhere else anyway where he can get more money and playing time.

Ryan Johnson: Johnson is now 34 years old and has a lot of mileage on his body. His heart is unquestionable but he provides little offense and has lost a step. He had a very poor year on the penalty kill last year and I don’t think he’ll be back. He’ll find another spot in the league most likely, but at less than the $1.15 million he earned last season.

Kyle Wellwood: Sorry to say it, but I think Canuckz.com blogger Sean Ovariez’s favourite player will be playing somewhere else next season. Wellwood is just so inconsistent and doesn’t provide that grit element the Canucks were missing in the playoffs. Add the fact that the Canucks are probably hoping that Cody Hodgson takes over the third line centre role next season and I think the writing is on the wall, but he’ll be missed.

Restricted Free Agents:

Mason Raymond: Raymond will be back, but the question is at what price? A good comparable is Wojtek Wolski, who at a similar age and production just signed a two year deal worth $3.8 million per season. Wolski probably has the better resume thus far, so expect Raymond to make less than that, but not much less. Bet on about $3.2 million per season.

Shane O’Brien: O’Brien got a qualifying offer from the Canucks worth $1.6 million. The question is, is that too much for the role he plays? With the acquisition of Keith Ballard, O’Brien is now sixth on the depth chart. I like O’Brien, but I don’t think you can afford to pay your sixth d-man that kind of coin. He might be trade bait.

Tanner Glass: Glass brought some nice elements to the team last season, but I don’t think he’ll be back. He was good, but the team will probably be looking for more potential in his spot.

Jannik Hansen: Jannik Hansen is an interesting case. He’s still young at age 24, and was actually quite productive. Something tells me he won’t be back though. Perhaps it’s because he’s not Alain Vigneault’s favourite guy or perhaps they just want more grit and toughness on the third/fourth line.

Young Players Ready to Step In:

Cory Schneider: The young netminder signed a two year one-way deal worth $900,000 per season and will be handed the backup job behind Roberto Luongo. Mike Gillis has hinted that Schneider will get more playing time than Luongo’s backups have in the past.

Cody Hodgson: The Canucks most important prospect is now two years removed from his draft year and the team will do anything it can to give him the third line centre job. Assuming that he’s recovered from his injury troubles from last season he should be up for the challenge. Cross your fingers.

Jordan Schroeder: Schroeder didn’t have a great year last season with the University of Minnesota, notching 28 points in 37 games. At the end of the college season, he joined the Manitoba Moose and looked impressive. He put up 9 points in 11 regular season games and 6 points in 6 playoff games. That’s an impressive pro hockey debut, but I’m thinking he’ll probably need some more seasoning in the AHL.

Evan Oberg: In his first season of pro hockey Oberg lead all Moose d-men in scoring at age 21. He’s still young and could challenge for a job with the big club next season He’s probably destined to be a call-up from the Moose though.

Trade Bait:

In my mind the Canucks have a few pieces that could be offered up in a trade. Most notably, Kevin Bieksa could become expendable with the acquisition of Keith Ballard and perhaps the signing of free agent d-man. Shane O’Brien is in much the same situation as Bieksa (overpaid for his spot on the depth chart) and could be on the block. Look for at least one of them to go.

Up front, the trading of Michael Grabner probably solidifies Mason Raymond’s spot with the team. I say probably, because if he demands too much money as a restricted free agent he might be gone. That’s a long shot though. Darcy Hordichuk didn’t play a playoff game last season, but something tells me that he’ll be back.

So Who Will Gillis Bring Into the Fold?

Check back tomorrow when Canuckz.com will take a look at the most likely free agents the Canucks will target on July 1st. We’ll also take a stab at a few juicy trade rumours making the rounds. Remember to follow yours truly on Twitter for all the updates.

The 2009-2010 Vancouver Canucks, How Bad Was It?

Tonyz Tanti — Wed, 16 Jun 2010 05:30:48 +0000

Well, we’ve all had a chance to take a deep breath, sit back and really think about the year that was for our beloved Vancouver Canucks. Gone is the emotion/heartbreak/disappointment/anger from their second straight second round loss to the Chicago Blackhawks. What’s left is a better chance for impartial analysis as to what they did, what they have and what they should do.

Was it as Bad as we Thought?

It’s been over a month since the Canucks were ousted by the Blackhawks. At the time we knew the Blackhawks were good, but we also thought the Canucks could have and should have been better. Perhaps they should have, but consider this. The Canucks lost to the eventual Stanley Cup champions, which suggests they’re a pretty good team. The Blackhawks beat a hard working bunch with a strong defense (Nashville), a high scoring team (Vancouver), an all around talented team (San Jose) and a gritty team (Philadelphia). Basically, they beat different teams and it didn’t faze them one bit. The Canucks stretched the Hawks to 6 games, as far as any of their other three opponents.

I’m not arguing that the Canucks couldn’t have played better or that they don’t have problems they need to fix, but I’m starting to think that they weren’t as bad as we thought they were. We need to give the Blackhawks a bit of credit.

Your Best Players Need to be Your Best Players

So what just happened? Why did the Canucks look so terrible at times against the Blackhawks? For me, it starts with the old adage that your best players need to be your best players. I believe that Daniel and Henrik Sedin were good enough in the playoffs, each notching better than a point per game in the post season. It was the Canucks most important player, Roberto Luongo, who did not play up to par. True, the Chicago Blackhawks can make a lot of goalies look silly, but Luongo ended the playoffs with a save percentage below .900, not good enough for a goalie of his ability. Quite simply, the Canucks as they were constructed this year can’t and won’t win a Stanley Cup with average or below average goaltending.

But now, a little perspective. A lot of uneducated hockey fans are suggesting that the Canucks trade Luongo and “give Schneider a shot”. Lets not lose our minds here folks. Luongo may have had an off-season, but he can certain bounce back and giving the reigns to an unproven good AHL goalie is probably not a prudent move. For those of you in favour of letting Louie go, consider that his cap number will be going down next season, from $6.75 million to $5.33 million. That cap number puts him in 9th place among the other goalies in the league.

Who Would You Rather Have?

For those Luongo haters I also ask you this: how many goalies in this year’s playoffs would you want ahead of Luongo? Certainly not either of the Stanley Cup Final goaltenders. Would it be Evgeni Nabokov, he the man who plays behind all that talent in San Jose and year after year can’t get it done when it matters? How about Ilya Bryzgalov, who after a terrific regular season posted similar numbers to Luongo and lost in the first round. It’s getting harder and harder to make the case for Martin Brodeur now, with his best days behind him he looks like he’s beginning to lose a step and has had a few playoff flops in recent years. The Marc-Andre Fleury argument has always been “he’s got a Stanley Cup ring” but look at this year’s playoffs and I defy you to say that you’d be more comfortable with him in net. Steve Mason proved that having one amazing year doesn’t necessarily mean that it can be sustained, so lets forget about Tuukka Rask, Craig Anderson, Jimmy Howard, Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak. That leaves Ryan Miller, who was the best goalie in the league this year, and I would take him ahead of Luongo, but his teams (Team USA and Buffalo) didn’t do as well as Luongo’s this year.

The point? The best option for the Canucks remains to keep faith with Luongo and hope that he has a bounce-back season. Perhaps he needs to play less, and perhaps they’ve learned their lesson in that respect. Maybe he doesn’t need to play every game to be a great goalie, maybe he just needs to get used to resting more.

Where was the Grit?

Against the Chicago Blackhawks it seemed to be non-existent. While the Canucks defensemen were getting pounded, the Blackhawks defensemen cruised around with ease. A little more grit that can play in their top 9 or even in their top 6 should be a high priority for GM Mike Gillis, but once again, a little perspective is needed. Yesterday, Alex Burrows underwent shoulder surgery, while Ryan Kesler revealed he also played through a shoulder injury in the playoffs. It should come as no surprise that grit would be an issue when the two grittiest players in the Canucks top 6 forwards have shoulder injuries. So maybe it’s not quite as bad as we thought.

Defense

What was once the Canucks greatest strength not long ago is now their greatest need. Losing Willie Mitchell hurt greatly, and I contend that he is their most important defenseman. Christian Ehrhoff had a great season, but is not great defensively. Sami Salo actually stayed healthy for longer than anyone predicted, and had a solid season. Kevin Bieksa is now another year removed from his great breakout season, and I’m among those who think that he won’t regain the form that rewarded him with a big contract. Alex Edler stepped his game up more than anyone in the playoffs, which was a pleasant surprise. The Canucks D is missing a bit of nastiness though, something Kevin Bieksa is supposed to provide. It’s also missing a stud on the blueline that can eat up big minutes against the other team’s best players while contributing offensively.

The Recap

The Canucks had a nice regular season, not a great one. They won their division, but finished fourth in points in the Western Conference. They were a clear notch below the Sharks and Blackhawks in the regular season and failed to make it past the second round. That is not the mark of an elite team ready to knock on the door. There were a lot of positive things that happened this year though (the emergence of the Sedins as elite players, Kesler and Burrows proving they can score consistently, Edler and Ehrhoff taking steps forward in their development). Mike Gillis has some things to tweak, no doubt. But how bad was it? It wasn’t so bad, and it can sure get a lot better.

Ten Days Away

The NHL entry draft is ten days away, which not only marks the day that teams pick future NHL stars, but also the start of the NHL trade frenzy! Speaking of frenzies, the free agency frenzy begins in just over two weeks.Check back before the draft and July 1st to get in-depth analysis of just what Mike Gillis’ options are.

David Backes Rumoured to be on his way to the West Coast

Tonyz Tanti — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 23:22:02 +0000

Who likes rumours? Everyone! Matthew Sekeres is reporting that the Canucks and Blues may be working on a deal that would see the Canucks acquiring David Backes with Cory Schneider heading the other way. Apparently Mike Gillis decided last minute to skip the Top Prospects Game in Windsor in favour of the Habs-Blues game in Montreal, presumably to watch Backes.

Here are some other interesting things that Sekeres is saying about this rumour:

- In July 2008, one of Gillis’ first acts as Canucks GM was to sign St. Louis centre David Backes to a three-year, $7.5-million (all currencies U.S.) offer sheet. The Blues, grudgingly, matched.

- The Blues are six points out of a playoff spot, and have 16 games remaining before the Olympic break

- Blues president John Davidson was in Winnipeg in early-January, and told a local radio station he was there to scout the American Hockey League’s Manitoba Moose, Vancouver’s farm team, and the Hershey Bears, the Washington Capitals farm team. Both the Canucks and Caps are in playoff position.

- The Blues have been trying to get by with the tandem of Chris Mason and Ty Conklin, a pair of 33-year-olds who have been backups more than starters over their careers. Prospect Ben Bishop seems to have fallen out of favour, and long-range prospect Jake Allen proved that he is not nearly ready for prime time with an abysmal performance at the world junior championship in Saskatchewan earlier this month.

What would this trade mean for the Canucks:

-Acquiring a 25 year old 31 goal scorer (last season)

-Adding size and grit

-Upgrading on Kyle Wellwood as a 3rd line centre

What this would mean for the Blues:

-Securing their goaltending future

-Shedding some salary for a relatively cash poor franchise

Acquiring David Backes is very intriguing to me. Is he the 31 goal scorer we saw last year or is he the under performing player we’re seeing this year? Probably somewhere in between. He’s the right type of player they need: a young big bruising forward. My only concern is that giving up Cory Schneider might be a bit too much. If they could throw-in a draft pick, I think they may have a deal.

Lets hope this deal gets done if for no other reason than to wonder what Kesler and Burrows have to say to Backes when he walks in the room:

Forsberg to Vancouver? Maybe…

Tonyz Tanti — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:27:45 +0000

It’s that time of year again folks. Yep, the time of year that Mike Gillis tries to coax an aging Swedish future hall of fame centre to not retire and come to Vancouver. Peter Forsberg played in the Karjala Cup tournament in Helsinki this week, and is apparently contemplating a return to the NHL and possibly play in the 2010 Olympics this February. And Mike Gillis is interested.

The issue with Forsberg is of course his health. If he’s healthy, he’s still a very good player, but nagging foot problems have plagued him over the last bunch of years. So where will Forsberg land? Not Philadelphia according to reports. There are also rumours that he’s considering the KHL, but I would find that hard to believe. The Canucks should have the cap space to sign him because of Demitra’s injury, but would Forsberg consider Vancouver out of loyalty to the Avalanche? In the past he has reportedly felt that way, but lots has changed since then. Both teams have completely revamped rosters (gone are the likes of Bertuzzi, Cooke, Ruutu for the Canucks and Sakic, Roy, etc for the Avs), and are no longer the bitter rivals they once were. I’d still consider the Canucks a long shot to get him, but it sure would be nice to see him in a Vancouver uniform.

Imagine what a healthy Forsberg could do for the Vancouver lineup:

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows

Demitra-Kesler-Raymond

Samuelsson-Forsberg-Bernier

Those are three pretty potent scoring lines. If he gets injured, you throw Wellwood into his spot, and you’re back to where you are now.

TEAM 1410 Sports Radio

That’s right, there’s a new all-sports radio station in Vancouver, and it can be found on 1410 AM. It appears that it will be the home for the BC Lions as well as some US syndicated shows such as the Jim Rome Show. Pretty good idea if you ask me.

The current Team 1040 lineup has a lot of the same kind of show with the same kind of guests. I love listening to it, but sometimes it’s nice to hear about, say, the World Series instead of the Calgary Flames’ H1N1 flu shots.

Schneider in Goal Tonight

No, not Mathieu Schneider (wouldn’t be too surprising considering all the positions Canucks defencemen are playing lately), but Cory Schneider will get the start in goal tonight against Dallas. A little surprising considering how well Andrew Raycroft has been in goal this year (did you know he’s first in GAA and 2nd in SV% this year?!). The move is probably a good one, considering that the last time Raycroft played in the 2nd of back-to-back games he was pulled.

Ah oh, not Luongo! Injury Update

Tonyz Tanti — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 23:21:10 +0000

Roberto Luongo, yet again, is injured. He’ll be out at least a week with a rib injury. Whether or not it’s only a week remains to be seen, as Canucks management has been known to downplay injuries in the past. This marks the third straight season where Luongo will miss time due to an injury. Does this mean he can’t handle the ridiculously large workload the team gives him every year? Probably not, I tend to think it’s just a matter of being in the net more often gives you more opportunities to get injured.

This means that Andrew Raycroft and possibly Cory Schneider will get an opportunity to play. Raycroft looked great in preseason and his limited game action this season, but he hasn’t played for a while and would surely be rusty. We’ll see how that goes. I think he has the ability to step his game up, but we all know what usually happens to the Canucks when they’re without Luongo, nevermind when they do it with a bunch of injuries.

Here’s the rest of the injury updates:

-Ryan Johnson’s injury apparently isn’t as bad as originally reported

-Sami Salo and Daniel Sedin are ahead of schedule

-Rick Rypien is ready to go

-No news for Jannik Hansen and Pavol Demitra

The Bubble Boys

Tonyz Tanti — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 07:14:06 +0000

This year has been the most competitive Canucks camp in recent memory, with so many players with a realistic chance to make the team. Head coach Alain Vigneault has a lot of tough decisions ahead of him, particularly concerning players on the bubble. Numerous young and old guys are fighting for spots at forward, defense and in goal. Here’s where the “bubble boys” stack up so far:

Goaltenders:

Perhaps none of the battles have been as close as Schneider versus Raycroft for the backup job. Both have played well in their games, but conventional wisdom would suggest if it’s close, they’d give the job to Schneider. One would think that the Canucks want desperately to shop Schneider and then trade him as soon as possible while his stock is high. The thinking is that Schneider has already done everything he can do at the AHL level and that his trade value can only go up if he proves something in the NHL. It wouldn’t come without consequence though, Schneider’s cap hit of $1.084 million is more than double the minimum wage $500,000 hit from Raycroft. Raycroft would also have to clear waivers, while Schneider doesn’t. Should be interesting to see how Gillis makes the jigsaw puzzle come together.

Defense:

Shane O’Brien has been impressive so far in the preseason, looking more mobile and making good decisions with the puck. Everyone knows he’s tough, but he’ll need to be reliable defensively to deserve his new $1.7 million deal. Christian Ehrhoff has 4 points in 2 games, and is looking like he is solidifying a spot on the first unit power play. Brad Lukowich is a steady defensive defenceman, which means he won’t dazzle anyone, even when he’s at his best. Look for Lukowich to be their #7 or 8 defenceman, along with O’Brien. Mathieu Schneider hasn’t played a game in the preseason yet, presumably resting the 40 year blueliner for the regular season. It would be hard to imagine them not having him in mind for their top 6 if they are resting him in the preseason. Another impressive player in the preseason has been Aaron Rome. Barring injury/trade, I give Rome very little chance at cracking the Canucks roster. The resumes of the other 8 defencemen in camp are far superior and I don’t think there’s anything Rome can do to change that.

Forwards:

The Canucks currently have 13 proven NHL forwards under contract and I believe that all of them will make the team. Mason Raymond and Rick Rypien in particular have looked very impressive. Of the 13, Jannik Hansen is in the most danger of being thrown on waivers. That list of 13 forwards also includes the injured Pavol Demitra, which means that at least one of the bubble players will get a shot on opening day.

That’s where things get interesting. Cody Hodgson, Michael Grabner and Sergei Shirokov make-up the list of youngsters trying to crack the Canucks roster for the first time while Mark Parrish, Ronald Petrovicky and Dave Scatchard are all veterans on tryout contracts. None of the veterans have shown enough to earn an NHL gig thus far. Michael Grabner appears to be a young sniper who doesn’t score, and that’s a bad combination. Cody Hodgson has looked ok, but I don’t think he looks quite at home in the NHL yet. I think there’s a good chance that Hodgson will be sent back to junior. That leaves Sergei Shirokov. He’s impressed everyone since his first day at rookie camp and, assuming he can recover from his minor injury set-back, is my pick to make the Canucks roster.

And now for a trip back down memory lane… Possibly the greatest preseason goal ever scored:

Who Are These Guys? Canucks Win 2-1 in First Game of Pre-Season

Tonyz Tanti — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 06:46:50 +0000

The Canucks got their first exhibition game underway in Terrace, BC versus the New York Islanders as part of Kraft’s Hockeyville extravaganza. The game presented a once in a lifetime opportunity for Terrace residents to see the Canucks live in their hometown. Too bad the rosters of both teams more closely resembled that of an AHL roster. Now, the Islanders lineup looks like an AHL lineup at the best of times, but shame on the Canucks for not icing a more respectable lineup, given the circumstances. I know that training camp just started, but it was only about a 2 hour flight (if that) and the Canucks should have tried to put on a bit more of a show. The biggest names playing for Vancouver were Kyle Wellwood and Shane O’Brien. Maybe they didn’t need to send Luongo, but how about the Sedins, Burrows or Kesler? They would have never dared to ice such a lineup on GM Place ice. Even the most die hard hockey fan would have had a tough time identifying a lot of the players on the ice.

That being said, it looked like the people of Terrace had a great time. It’s a real cool event that the league puts on. To the credit of the Canucks, they did send Willie Mitchell and Kevin Bieksa to sign autographs and talk to kids. Ron MacLean and Don Cherry were also on hand, undoubtedly making them the biggest celebrities on hand (with apologies to Tommy Larscheid of course).

So what about the game? The Canucks won 2-1, with two notable performances. Cory Schneider stopped every shot he faced in the half game he played and Sergei Shirokov scored both Canuck goals. I must say that I was very impressed with Shirokov. His speed, skill and vision on the ice were nice to see, as was his intensity. He’s got an outside shot to make the team. Speaking of which, isn’t Michael Grabner supposed to have speed and skill with an outside shot to make the team? He was invisible Monday night.

Monday also marked the start of the comeback trail for Dave Scatchard, but he’s not the only veteran NHLer on a tryout with the Canucks. Ronald Petrovicky and Mark Parrish are also on unpaid tryouts with the big club. Parrish is probably the most intriguing one of the bunch, he is a six-time 20 goal scorer and is only 32. Perhaps in another year I’d give one of these three a chance to make the team, but in a year where the Canucks already have too many forwards and have young guys pushing to make it, a two-way deal is the best that these three can hope for.

Shirokov Showtime: