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Who will stay? Who will go? Mike Gillis’ Offseason Game Plan

Tonyz Tanti — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 08:13:31 +0000

The countdown to the free agent frenzy is on. July 1st marks the first day of free agency 2010 and the Canucks are sure to be busy. The Canucks currently have five regulars scheduled to become unrestricted free agents and four regulars set to become restricted free agents. Clearly not all of them will be back and some new players will be added via free agency. There is also the potential for young players to step into the lineup and more trades to happen. So what will Mike Gillis do? Well, lets try to figure that out right now:

Unrestricted Free Agents:

Willie Mitchell: Perhaps the most valuable Canucks defenceman over the last number of years, most in the know are assuming that the Port Alberni native’s days are numbered in Vancouver. Mitchell, 33, made $3.5 million last season and should still have a couple more very productive years left. If not for his concussion history, I think the Canucks would be wise to re-sign him at the same money for a couple more years. The question is what will he command on the open market? He’ll probably land somewhere in the neighbourhood of $4 million on a short term deal or $3.5 on a 3-4 year deal. I don’t think he’ll be back, but I think they should try to keep him.

Pavol Demitra: Needless to say Demitra will not be back. He had a disappointing two seasons in Vancouver and isn’t a top six forward anymore with the players they have.

Andrew Raycroft: The one-way deal for Cory Schneider means that Raycroft won’t be back, though he was probably destined to go somewhere else anyway where he can get more money and playing time.

Ryan Johnson: Johnson is now 34 years old and has a lot of mileage on his body. His heart is unquestionable but he provides little offense and has lost a step. He had a very poor year on the penalty kill last year and I don’t think he’ll be back. He’ll find another spot in the league most likely, but at less than the $1.15 million he earned last season.

Kyle Wellwood: Sorry to say it, but I think Canuckz.com blogger Sean Ovariez’s favourite player will be playing somewhere else next season. Wellwood is just so inconsistent and doesn’t provide that grit element the Canucks were missing in the playoffs. Add the fact that the Canucks are probably hoping that Cody Hodgson takes over the third line centre role next season and I think the writing is on the wall, but he’ll be missed.

Restricted Free Agents:

Mason Raymond: Raymond will be back, but the question is at what price? A good comparable is Wojtek Wolski, who at a similar age and production just signed a two year deal worth $3.8 million per season. Wolski probably has the better resume thus far, so expect Raymond to make less than that, but not much less. Bet on about $3.2 million per season.

Shane O’Brien: O’Brien got a qualifying offer from the Canucks worth $1.6 million. The question is, is that too much for the role he plays? With the acquisition of Keith Ballard, O’Brien is now sixth on the depth chart. I like O’Brien, but I don’t think you can afford to pay your sixth d-man that kind of coin. He might be trade bait.

Tanner Glass: Glass brought some nice elements to the team last season, but I don’t think he’ll be back. He was good, but the team will probably be looking for more potential in his spot.

Jannik Hansen: Jannik Hansen is an interesting case. He’s still young at age 24, and was actually quite productive. Something tells me he won’t be back though. Perhaps it’s because he’s not Alain Vigneault’s favourite guy or perhaps they just want more grit and toughness on the third/fourth line.

Young Players Ready to Step In:

Cory Schneider: The young netminder signed a two year one-way deal worth $900,000 per season and will be handed the backup job behind Roberto Luongo. Mike Gillis has hinted that Schneider will get more playing time than Luongo’s backups have in the past.

Cody Hodgson: The Canucks most important prospect is now two years removed from his draft year and the team will do anything it can to give him the third line centre job. Assuming that he’s recovered from his injury troubles from last season he should be up for the challenge. Cross your fingers.

Jordan Schroeder: Schroeder didn’t have a great year last season with the University of Minnesota, notching 28 points in 37 games. At the end of the college season, he joined the Manitoba Moose and looked impressive. He put up 9 points in 11 regular season games and 6 points in 6 playoff games. That’s an impressive pro hockey debut, but I’m thinking he’ll probably need some more seasoning in the AHL.

Evan Oberg: In his first season of pro hockey Oberg lead all Moose d-men in scoring at age 21. He’s still young and could challenge for a job with the big club next season He’s probably destined to be a call-up from the Moose though.

Trade Bait:

In my mind the Canucks have a few pieces that could be offered up in a trade. Most notably, Kevin Bieksa could become expendable with the acquisition of Keith Ballard and perhaps the signing of free agent d-man. Shane O’Brien is in much the same situation as Bieksa (overpaid for his spot on the depth chart) and could be on the block. Look for at least one of them to go.

Up front, the trading of Michael Grabner probably solidifies Mason Raymond’s spot with the team. I say probably, because if he demands too much money as a restricted free agent he might be gone. That’s a long shot though. Darcy Hordichuk didn’t play a playoff game last season, but something tells me that he’ll be back.

So Who Will Gillis Bring Into the Fold?

Check back tomorrow when Canuckz.com will take a look at the most likely free agents the Canucks will target on July 1st. We’ll also take a stab at a few juicy trade rumours making the rounds. Remember to follow yours truly on Twitter for all the updates.

Henrikmania, Schneider-Lukowich Swap, Jannik “Dangerfield” Hansen and More!

Tonyz Tanti — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 01:00:14 +0000

After lets face it, a boring first 20-30 games this season, there are now lots of things going on in Canuckland. In fact, I can think of at least ten of them:

1. Henrikmania

Henrik Sedin, Art Ross Trophy winner… could it happen? You would have been laughed at if you suggested this even a month ago. But not now. Henrik was named the NHL first star for the month of December and is currently tied for first in the league in scoring! This is not just a small streak that he’s on, we’re more than halfway through the season. Take notice: Henrik (and Daniel) have arrived as elite players.

2. Mathieu Schneider is Gone

Apparently he’s nice and happy in Manitoba now and apparently it sounds like the Canucks wanted to see him go as much as he did. One of the more interesting excerpts:

“You’re speaking to a guy who generally believes in forgiveness,” assistant general manager Laurence Gilman said. “But there’s been a certain amount of water under the bridge at this point. He hasn’t been happy with what has occurred here, and we haven’t been happy with what has occurred.”

Doesn’t sound like they’ll be interested in recalling him anytime soon. Something was obviously said/done behind the scenes that we don’t know about.

3. Lukowich is Back

Brad Lukowich is back in town! The Canucks entered this season with 9 defencemen under contract and it looks like it was a good decision. They’ve used them all. Luckily Lukowich got through re-entry waivers (a little surprising if you ask me).

4. Jannik Hansen Gets No Respect

Jannik Hansen is the Rodney Dangerfield of the Vancouver Canucks. He has seven points in 20 games so far, playing only 12 minutes a night on the fourth line. Those are great numbers, he has an even plus-minus rating and I think he checks well also. So why has he been a healthy scratch since the December 27 win in Calgary? I know why: no respect.

5. Louie’s Lights Out

So why are the Canucks playing so well of late? Well as usual, the Canucks go as Roberto Luongo plays. He’s been lights out lately and so has the team. He’s starting to climb up the ladder in goalie stats to where he belongs.

6. Tickets to Canucks Games

Notice how many times the Canucks have released tickets for games at GM Place lately? I can’t remember another season like it. Any chance they’re not actually selling out all of their games anymore? Maybe they’ve finally reached the ceiling for ticket prices, especially in this economy.

7. Rick Rypien

Need we say more?

8. Pavol Demitra

He practiced this week for the first time in months and he’s almost back from his injury. Lets just hope he can stay healthy once he gets back.

9. Cody Hodgson

Watching the World Juniors without Cody Hodgson got me thinking, has he played this year yet? Well the answer is no. It also got me thinking once again: why was he playing in the NHL preseason again?

10. On the Right Side of the Bar

Finally the Canucks have re-joined the top 8 in the Western Conference! I don’t think I was the only one who was getting nervous about that. Don’t look now, but they’re knocking on the door for the division lead too.

Hodgson Back to Junior, Lukowich on Waivers, Demitra Back Soon

Tonyz Tanti — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 17:55:07 +0000

The Vancouver Canucks have announced that their golden boy, Cody Hodgson, will not be sticking around with the big club and instead be sent back to junior this season. I applaud the move, as he simply doesn’t belong in the NHL… yet. No need to rush him, especially with the depth they have. He’ll be extremely disappointed, but you shouldn’t make the NHL based on reputation or hype. Three years ago Dave Nonis did this with the late Luc Bourdon, keeping him for 9 games and then sent him back to junior. It was a mistake then, because Bourdon was out of his element.

Hodgson will get a chance to get healthier (it’s entirely clear his back isn’t 100%) and dominate once again in junior. He’ll also be the leading candidate to captain Canada’s world junior team. If you ask me, that’s a better way to develop than sitting in the press box or struggling on the 3rd line in the NHL.

In other news, Brad Lukowich is on waivers. This is a mistake in my opinion. They have room to keep him on their roster, and keeping an experienced, stay-at-home defenceman that owns a Stanley Cup ring can’t be a bad thing. Maybe they figure that other teams will be scared off by his contract, but nobody will if he’s on recallable waivers. The news with Lukowich means that Aaron Rome will start the year with the Canucks.

***UPDATE***

Team 1040 is reporting that Pavol Demitra is not on the long term injury list, so this helps explain why they got rid of Lukowich (make room for Demitra on the 23 man roster and make room for his $4 million salary). This suggests that Demitra won’t be gone for long.

What To Do About Hodgson?

Tonyz Tanti — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 22:09:49 +0000

Will we be seeing Cody Hodgson in Canuck blue this season or will the people of Brampton be seeing him back in one of those snazzy green Brampton Battalion jerseys? That’s the decision that Mike Gillis and Alain Vigneault are trying to make and fans of the Canucks are debating. Yesterday I theorized that Hodgson would be sent back to junior.

I thought that until I read this from Vigneault: “One thing I firmly believe is talent has no age,” Vigneault said. “Talent helps a player improve and improve quicker. If we start with a player that might be 10 or 15 per cent behind somebody else at this time, but because his skill set is better … he might become by Christmas a better player than what we have here, we’d have to consider that in the equation.”

To me, this is an indication that they will make excuses for Hodgson’s play. Look for them to insert Hodgson for at least the 9 games (the cut-off point for junior players able to return to junior and not count towards the cap). They will do this with the thought that as Hodgson’s back gets better and he gets more comfortable, he’ll be full marks for his NHL job. While this may be a perfectly legitimate viewpoint to have, I don’t think they should give Hodgson a job unless he really deserves 15 minutes of ice time a night. To do that, he’ll have to supplant himself into the top 9 forwards on the team. That list currently includes: both Sedins, Kesler, Burrows, Samuelsson, Wellwood, Bernier, Raymond and the injured Pavol Demitra. So then it becomes a case of who deserves the spot more, Shirokov or Hodgson. If you want to keep both (even with Demitra’s injury), then you will have to put one of your defencemen or Jannik Hansen on waivers, for which they will likely be lost. The other scenario is that Gillis pulls the trigger on a trade to open up space.

Hodgson will get a great chance to show what he’s got tonight against the Sharks when he lines up with Alex Burrows and Ryan Kesler. If he doesn’t show he really belongs, then I think he should spend another year in junior.

The Bubble Boys

Tonyz Tanti — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 07:14:06 +0000

This year has been the most competitive Canucks camp in recent memory, with so many players with a realistic chance to make the team. Head coach Alain Vigneault has a lot of tough decisions ahead of him, particularly concerning players on the bubble. Numerous young and old guys are fighting for spots at forward, defense and in goal. Here’s where the “bubble boys” stack up so far:

Goaltenders:

Perhaps none of the battles have been as close as Schneider versus Raycroft for the backup job. Both have played well in their games, but conventional wisdom would suggest if it’s close, they’d give the job to Schneider. One would think that the Canucks want desperately to shop Schneider and then trade him as soon as possible while his stock is high. The thinking is that Schneider has already done everything he can do at the AHL level and that his trade value can only go up if he proves something in the NHL. It wouldn’t come without consequence though, Schneider’s cap hit of $1.084 million is more than double the minimum wage $500,000 hit from Raycroft. Raycroft would also have to clear waivers, while Schneider doesn’t. Should be interesting to see how Gillis makes the jigsaw puzzle come together.

Defense:

Shane O’Brien has been impressive so far in the preseason, looking more mobile and making good decisions with the puck. Everyone knows he’s tough, but he’ll need to be reliable defensively to deserve his new $1.7 million deal. Christian Ehrhoff has 4 points in 2 games, and is looking like he is solidifying a spot on the first unit power play. Brad Lukowich is a steady defensive defenceman, which means he won’t dazzle anyone, even when he’s at his best. Look for Lukowich to be their #7 or 8 defenceman, along with O’Brien. Mathieu Schneider hasn’t played a game in the preseason yet, presumably resting the 40 year blueliner for the regular season. It would be hard to imagine them not having him in mind for their top 6 if they are resting him in the preseason. Another impressive player in the preseason has been Aaron Rome. Barring injury/trade, I give Rome very little chance at cracking the Canucks roster. The resumes of the other 8 defencemen in camp are far superior and I don’t think there’s anything Rome can do to change that.

Forwards:

The Canucks currently have 13 proven NHL forwards under contract and I believe that all of them will make the team. Mason Raymond and Rick Rypien in particular have looked very impressive. Of the 13, Jannik Hansen is in the most danger of being thrown on waivers. That list of 13 forwards also includes the injured Pavol Demitra, which means that at least one of the bubble players will get a shot on opening day.

That’s where things get interesting. Cody Hodgson, Michael Grabner and Sergei Shirokov make-up the list of youngsters trying to crack the Canucks roster for the first time while Mark Parrish, Ronald Petrovicky and Dave Scatchard are all veterans on tryout contracts. None of the veterans have shown enough to earn an NHL gig thus far. Michael Grabner appears to be a young sniper who doesn’t score, and that’s a bad combination. Cody Hodgson has looked ok, but I don’t think he looks quite at home in the NHL yet. I think there’s a good chance that Hodgson will be sent back to junior. That leaves Sergei Shirokov. He’s impressed everyone since his first day at rookie camp and, assuming he can recover from his minor injury set-back, is my pick to make the Canucks roster.

And now for a trip back down memory lane… Possibly the greatest preseason goal ever scored:

Bad Luck Canucks

Tonyz Tanti — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 22:27:03 +0000

I woke up this morning and read a couple of troubling stories about some Canuck prospects. Arguably the Canucks best player of the preseason, Sergei “the Pocket Russian Rocket” Shirokov, suffered a mild first degree sprain on his knee in the Canucks 3-1 win over Edmonton last night. They are hoping to have him back for next weekend, which leaves him little time to impress the coaches enough to crack the opening day lineup.

I also read a story by Jason Botchford, describing Michael Grabner as “invisible” in last night’s win. I must say that I have been very disappointed in his play this preseason also. He is supposed to be a prolific scorer, and should have shown more than he has. He’s getting dangerously close to “bust” status if he can’t crack the Canucks lineup soon.

Couple these two stories with the back ailment that Cody Hodgson is recovering from and I couldn’t help but think back to all the bad luck the Canucks seem to have had concerning draft picks. From losing the wheel turn in 1970 and having to select Dale Tallon, while the Sabres got to choose future Hall of Famer Gilbert Perreault, to giving up too soon on a young Cam Neely. It seems like the Canucks don’t get a lot of breaks. When they get a good draft pick, they trade him away prematurely (see Cam Neely, Mike Peca and RJ Umberger). When they have a bust on their hands, they seem to hold onto him forever (see Fedor Fedorov, Jim Sandlak and Nathan Smith).

Now, there are exceptions like Pavel Bure, but overall, the Canucks just seem to be cursed. Unless Bure can get into the Hall of Fame (which he has been unsuccessful so far), the Canucks are the only team (aside from the teams that joined the NHL in the 90s or later) to not have a player in the Hall of Fame that played the bulk of their career with the franchise. Every other team has had at least one Hall of Famer, like Dale Hawerchuk (Winnipeg/Phoenix), Rod Langway (Washington) and Ron Francis (Hartford/Carolina). Instead, the Canucks have had players who have been good, not great, like Trevor Linden, Stan Smyl, and Markus Naslund. All three are extremely unlikely to get a sniff of the Hall.

Lets hope Hodgson and Shirokov can get 100% healthy, and help the Canucks ASAP and have great careers. Lets also hope that Cory Schneider can find his form in the NHL to give the Canucks a good bargaining chip to play with. But if history is to repeat itself, start worrying!

Is this for real?!

Hodgson Injury, Vigneault’s Contract, Cloutier’s Comeback and More!

Tonyz Tanti — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 20:02:52 +0000

Nice to see Cody Hodgson back on the ice this week at Canucks prospect camp. Hodgson injured his back from the 120+ games he played at the NHL exhibition/OHL regular season and playoffs/AHL playoffs and had surgery on it over the summer. Everyone is praying that this isn’t going to be a chronic problem that plagues him (that would be just the Canucks luck wouldn’t it?). He’s not participating in any contact drills, so it’s not 100% yet. Here’s hoping that the Canucks don’t rush him at all and allow him to get to 100%. You know a young guy like that with all sorts of expectations will probably want to rush it.

Speaking of prospects camp, anyone else notice that they’re practicing on the old UBC rink (Father Bauer Arena) and not the brand new Thunderbird Arena built for the Olympics? I’ve skated on both and the ice is a lot better in the old rink. Thunderbird Arena is just too warm. They might want to think about that before, say, the world comes to visit.

Seems like Alain Vigneault is a lame duck coach… for now at least. That shouldn’t last long though, Mike Gillis has said that he wants to extend the entire coaching staff. The question is, when? Gillis said that he wanted to do that in May, so you’d wonder why it would take until September for it to happen. That said, that seems to be Gillis’ style, so expect Vigneault to get an extension soon.

Nice to see Dan Cloutier is at least on the NHL radar again. Cloutier is trying out for the Detroit Red Wings. There’s no guaranteed money for him, but if he impresses, he could be Chris Osgood’s backup (which is interesting as they are both known for giving up goals from centre ice, but I digress). I hope Cloutier finds a way back to the NHL. He’s been criticized heavily, often warranted, but often unwarranted as well. Most of his poor play was injury-based. He was a middle of the road starting goalie when healthy.

Keeping the theme of former Canucks going, nice to see Taylor Pyatt finally found a new team. Pyatt signed a one-year deal with the Hamilton Phoenix Coyotes last week. It would have been sad to see him lose his job/lifestyle in the NHL after all he has already had to deal with.

How good has Sergei Shirokov looked so far at prospect’s camp? Well, he’s being compared to Austin Powers. Is that a good thing? I’m not sure, but video clips like the one below are nice to see:

Canucks Re-sign Hansen

Tonyz Tanti — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 18:22:20 +0000

The Canucks have re-signed RFA Jannik Hansen to a two-way deal worth $550,000. Hansen would have to clear waivers in order to go to the minors, and I think it’s unlikely that he wouldn’t be claimed by another team if they tried to send him to Manitoba. This is an interesting deal for the Canucks. Hansen is a nice role player to have, but he’s also the 13th NHL forward that the Canucks have signed (14 when you include Cody Hodgson and 15 if you include Michael Grabner). Consider that most NHL teams only carry 13-14 forwards, and it’s only a matter of time before Gillis pulls the trigger on a deal for a defenceman.

Contracts, Arbitration and Speculation!

Tonyz Tanti — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 19:57:43 +0000

When you look at the Canucks payroll right now, one thing is clear: something has to give. If Michael Grabner and Cody Hodgson are ready for the NHL this season, then Mike Gillis currently has 15 potential NHL forwards. When you consider that most teams carry 14 or fewer forwards, then yes, something has to give. Here’s a list of where they’re at:

Top 9 forwards under contract (one-way contract):

Daniel Sedin
Henrik Sedin
Pavol Demitra
Ryan Kesler
Alex Burrows
Mikael Samuelsson
Mason Raymond
Steve Bernier

Top 9 forwards under contract (two-way contract):

Cody Hodgson
Michael Grabner

Top 9 forwards not under contract (restricted free agent)

Kyle Wellwood
Jannik Hansen

Fourth liners under contract:

Ryan Johnson
Darcy Hordichuk
Rick Rypien

Assuming they play with 14 forwards, then someone is on the trade block if both Grabner (he is not a certainty) and Hodgson (he is) make the team. Now assuming that the 4th liners stay in the line-up on a regular basis and that they re-sign their restricted free agents, they will have some players in the press box that they don’t want there. If Hodgson and Grabner make the team, they will want them playing often, most likely on their top 3 lines. That means that Wellwood, Raymond and Hansen will be in the press box (or traded) unless Gillis makes a move. With Ohlund gone, their need is clear on defence.

So who is on the move? I think that Wellwood and/or Demitra will be on the move. Wellwood’s probably in line for a raise and is also probably penciled in to be in the press box with Hodgson and Samuelsson on their way. Demitra makes $4 million, and is the most expensive of their forwards not named Daniel or Henrik. Look for them to find a defenceman from a team without depth up front and good depth on defence.

A team like Toronto would make some sense, if not for the grudge that Brian Burke has with the Aquilinis/Canucks. A team like Philadelphia might work. They’ve just acquired Chris Pronger, and probably no longer need a guy like Matt Carle, who would surely help the Canucks power play. He’s young and only has a cap hit of $3.438, which fits him into the Canucks payroll structure nicely. Philly has just lost Mike Knuble to free agency and Joffrey Lupul via trade. They’re deep at centre, but could use wingers like Demitra or Hansen. They could also use a goaltender of the future like Kevin Weekes Cory Schneider.