With a 8 for 14 prediction rate so far in these playoffs, Canuckz.com has predicted about as accurately as Maggie the Monkey. With that said, we’re pretty stubborn here at Canuckz.com and we’re not giving up. So without further ado, here is the MUCH anticipated Canuckz.com Stanley Cup Final prediction:

The Matchup:

The Chicago Blackhawks and Philadelphia Flyers have a few things in common. They both have goaltenders who nobody thought would be starting goalies at the beginning of this season, nevermind playing well for Stanley Cup finalists. They also have a very strong defense corps, especially their in their top four. Chicago’s Keith, Seabrook, Campbell and Hjalmarsson are probably equaled by Pronger, Timonen, Coburn and Carle for the Flyers. Up front, both teams are lead by young captains, surrounded by a good mix of young and veteran forwards.

Goaltending:

Antti Niemi versus Michael Leighton. Who would have predicted that these two goalies would be squaring off in the Stanley Cup Final before this season started? Amazingly, neither one has been a weakness for their team in these playoffs. I think both goalies will be in for a rude awakening in the finals. Neither goalie has had to face the kind of net presence, bumping and overall chippy play that they’re due to see in this round. The Blackhawks have made Anderson, Luongo and Nabokov look very ordinary, often due to traffic in front. You can bet that the Flyers will be trying much of the same on Niemi, and the types of players to make it happen effectively. As for who has the edge, based on play you’d have to say Leighton, but I believe that his strong play has been more a product of Philly’s defense. The edge goes to neither team, it’s a wash.

Defense:

The way Philadelphia’s defense is playing, I think you have to consider this position a wash also. The difference between now and the regular season has been Chris Pronger. Pronger has really stepped up his game and is playing over 28 minutes a game. He’s also the perfect guy to battle with Chicago’s big strong forwards in front of the net. With that said, Keith and Seabrook might be the best defense pair in the NHL. Philadelphia’s defense also hasn’t had to face a team with a decent offense since they faced New Jersey in round 1.

Forwards:

The edge at the forward position goes to Chicago. Jonathan Toews has been the best player in the playoffs, and is playing alongside the always dangerous Patrick Kane and the red hot Dustin Byfuglien. They’ve rolled through the playoffs nicely, and they still haven’t gotten much production from Marian Hossa. The rest of their forwards are all playing at the top of their game and appear to be very healthy.

As for the Flyers, they’ve now got Jeff Carter back in the lineup, but how healthy is he? He only got 17 minutes of ice time in the last game against Montreal, so things appear to be looking better. Mike Richards, Danny Briere, Claude Giroux and Simon Gagne are carrying the mail for the Flyers forwards, who are good and gritty. They aren’t as deep as the Blackhawks though, and they don’t have as much top end talent, although it’s close.

Coaching:

Both Joel Quenneville and Peter Laviolette come into this series with great resumes. Laviolette has won a Stanley Cup, while Quenneville has been one of the more successful coaches in this decade. It has been said that Quenneville has an easier time winning the matchup game because of his personnel, and I happen to agree with that. He is able to throw Keith and Seabrook on the ice to eat up big minutes, while he has four centres who are excellent defensively. David Bolland is his shutdown centre, but John Madden, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Sharp could all play that role if needed. Laviolette is in a similar situation with his defense, as he has two excellent pairings that eat up huge minutes.

X-Factor:

There are two x-factors are play. The Blackhawks have been good all season, and came close last year. How many times do we see teams lose in the conference final or Stanley Cup final and come back to win the top prize the following season?

The X-Factor for the Flyers is the incredible roll they’re on. This team was the last team to qualify for the playoffs, needing a shootout win against the Rangers on the last day of the season just to squeak in. They’re also the first team in 35 years to come back from a 3-0 deficit, as they did in round 2 against Boston.

Who’s Hot?

The Flyers are hotter than they’ve been all season and have won 8 of their last 9 games. The Blackhawks are rolling also, winning 8 of their last 9 as well. One might give the edge to the Blackhawks, considering they knocked off the Canucks and Sharks, better teams than the Bruins and Canadiens.

Prediction:

Cinderella often makes it to the Stanley Cup Final but never wins it. I don’t think this year will be much different. The Blackhawks are healthier and more battle tested than the Flyers, who have scraped and clawed their way past relatively weak opponents. The Flyers will make it interesting, but ultimately the better team will win. Blackhawks in 6.

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It goes without saying that tonight’s pivotal game 6 is the biggest game of the year. If anyone knows what to expect, please let me know, because I can’t figure this team out. They’re down 3-2 in the series but both of their wins were by fairly large margins. They were great at home all year, but have dropped both home games in this series, and looked terrible while doing so. With that said, lets take a look at the ten most important questions heading in to today’s matchup:

1. Will Salo play?

It was assumed that Sami Salo would miss game 6 after testicle-gate, but it looks like he might play! Salo participated in practice this morning (although skating gingerly) and participated in the power play meeting. He’s going to be a game time decision. If he can’t play, look for Lawrence Nycholat to play in his place.

2. Will Kevin Bieksa be good Bieksa or bad Bieksa?

Good Bieksa showed up in game 5, playing steady defensively and contributing offensively. Unfortunately that’s been a rare site this year. Lets hope we see the good Bieksa for the second night in a row.

3. Will Roberto Luongo step up?

He has in all three games in Chicago but didn’t in game 3 and 4. He’ll need to fight to see pucks and will need to keep his composure.
4. Will the Canucks stay disciplined?

Lets hope so because their PK has been brutal in these playoffs.

5. Will the Canucks PK do the job?
They have a playoff worst 67.3% penalty kill percentage.They were 4 for 4 in game 5, which was huge.

6. Whose top scorers will rise to the occasion?

The Sedin twins haven’t dominated a game in a while and Mikael Samuelsson is due also. Burrows had his best game in game 5. Patrick Kane has been quiet of late, which seems like the calm before the storm, while Jonathan Toews and Patrick Sharp have been great all series long. Those players, among others, will be key to their team’s success.
7. Will Dustin Byfuglien get up to his old tricks?

He will probably interfere with Luongo most of the night, but it’s how Luongo and the Canucks D respond to it that matters. Hopefully the refs actually call him for goalie interference one of these days also.
8. Will the Canucks get traffic in front of Antti Niemi?

Two of the three goals that Niemi let in last game were because of Burrows screening in front, so probably not a bad idea.

9. Who will score the first goal?

Chicago scored first in the last two games at GM Place and if the Canucks could pop the first one in it could calm some nerves and put the pressure on the Hawks. It might also get GM Place to be a bit noisy.

10. How loud will the fans at GM Place be tonight?

It’s been quiet all playoffs long. Time for the fans to step up. Put down your blackberries and your sushi in the club seats and make some noise!!! Hopefully fans will take cheering as a way to make the team play better, not just as a matter of recognizing excellence.

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2. Game 6 Recap – Hawks Too Much For Canucks
3. Game 3 Recap – Blackhawks Outsmart Canucks

Apologies for not getting the game 4 recap out sooner, but all of the Canuckz.com team were out drowning their sorrows after one of the most disheartening games in recent memory. For the second straight game the Canucks were outsmarted, getting scored on and getting laughed at by the stronger, faster, cockier and so far better Chicago Blackhawks. Without getting into it too much, I’m sure we want to forget it by now, the Canucks need better goaltending from Roberto Luongo, more disciplined play, and better penalty killing.

And now, moving ahead to game 5….

A lot of what the Canucks need can start from Luongo. Perhaps that’s a bit simplistic to suggest, but Luongo should be their best player and should be their best penalty killer. So if Luongo plays well, the team feeds off it, and their penalty kill improves automatically.

Penalty Kill

Speaking of the penalty kill, apart from getting better goaltending, they need to get more aggressive. The PK had a turn around against the LA Kings by getting aggressive all over the rink. They have gotten away from that again in this series. They need to make it difficult for the Hawks to gather speed through the neutral zone and difficult to set-up in the offensive zone.

Play Their Game

The Canucks need to play Canuck hockey. By this I mean they need to play to their strengths and not get side tracked by all of the Chicago nonsense. I would leave Byfuglien alone in front of Luongo on the power play for starters. You’re not going to move him, so better to have just one big body in front of Louie rather than two. The entire team also needs to do their best to stay out of the box, seeing how their PK is playing. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be aggressive, but they can’t take any needless penalties after the whistle and such.

News from the Twitter World:

Getting some great news from the world of Twitter on today’s game from some of the media guys in Chicago.

More reason for the Canucks to be disciplined, Eric Duhatschek points out that it looks like the refs will be calling it tight tonight.

Dan Murphy is reporting that Pavol Demitra will be back in for today’s game, with Tanner Glass drawing out. Demitra will move to the second line and play with Mason Raymond and Ryan Kesler. Worth a shot in my opinion, although I think I would have played Mikael Samuelsson on the second line and moved Mason Raymond to the third.

Murph is also reporting that Luongo has shaved his playoff beard. I guess as Geno Reda pointed out, sporting the second lowest save percentage among NHL goalies after the Olympics (minimum 15 games played) has him wanting to change his luck.

They Can Do It:

The Canucks aren’t dead yet, although it doesn’t look good. I believe that tonight’s pivotal game 5 will be the toughest to win. If they can manage to win game 5, they figure to be due for a win at GM Place. If they can do that and force a game 7, the weight of the world will be on the Blackhawks not to blow a 3-1 series lead on home ice. A few things need to go right, but it’s not impossible and it’s been done before. If that happens, it will be because Luongo was great, their forwards keep scoring and their penalty kill steps up. Hopefully for Canucks fans, that starts tonight.

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Skate and go to the net, presumably that’s the message from Coach V to his troops tonight. Alain Vigneault has a few lineup shuffles in mind for tonight’s contest. Pavol Demitra and Rick Rypien will sit out tonight’s contest in favour of Michael Grabner and Tanner Glass. Here’s what the Canucks lines are expected to look like:

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows

Raymond-Kesler-Grabner

Hansen-Wellwood-Samuelsson

Glass-Johnson-Bernier

I like the idea of them shaking it up. You’ve got to give the Hawks a different look, make your team unpredictable.

Power Play

The Canucks power play clearly needs to be better and Alain Vigneault has decided to shake that up also:

1st PP Unit:

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows

Bieksa-Salo

2nd PP Unit:

Wellwood/Bernier-Kesler-Samuelsson

Ehrhoff-Edler

Once again, I like the sounds of this. The mandate sounds like they want more point shots with a net presence. If they do that, it’ll open things up for the Sedins down low. It’s no different than having a three point threat helping your post players in basketball.

Burish Bullsh*t

Adam Burish had a few choice words for a few members of the Canucks. Here are a few excerpts:

“The thing that upsets me about O’Brien and Burrows is they go and target [Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews],” Burish said Friday morning. “The clown Burrows goes after [Brian] Campbell in the middle of the ice.

“Give me a break. If you want to target someone, come find me or [Ben Eager]. You guys want to pretend you’re so tough, and yet you go and try to pick a fight with those guys. If you want to hit them and play hard, fine. But those clowns are pushing them after the whistle and punching them.”

“We call O’Brien a ‘spot picker,’ ” Burish said. “He picks his spots pretty nice. He knows who’s on the ice and when he can be a tough guy and when he kind of has to shut up.”

To me this is nothing more than Burish trying to throw the Canucks off their game. I don’t know if it will work or if it will just motivate the Canucks, but I do know that those are tough words for a guy who got his clock cleaned by O’Brien last season:

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The so-called “parity” of the salary cap era is on display, as the three top seeds are now eliminated in the East. But what about the parity between the West and the East? It seems as though the only strong team remaining in the East is the Pittsburgh Penguins and compared to their counterparts in the West; San Jose, Chicago, Detroit and Vancouver, they look overmatched.

After besting a hot Halak in Montreal, and defeating either a decimated Flyers squad, or a sub-par Bruins team; the Pens should cruise to their third consecutive Stanley Cup final. After this relatively easy road to the final, the dream of repeating as Cup champs ends there.  The Pens only chance repeating as Cup champions would be a Conn Smythe performance from Sid the Kid, or possibly the good fortune of playing a beaten, bruised, and injury riddled team coming out of the West. The West is too strong and the Stanley Cup will return to the more dominant Conference.

So which team will hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup this year? My prediction is the Vancouver Canucks and the Detroit Red Wings in the Conference final with the winner being crowned Stanley Cup Champion.

Vancouver vs. Chicago

What a series this will be. After last year’s 7 goal Roberto Luongo debacle in game 6, not to mention Patrick Kane’s three goal performance, this series is personal. These two teams have a deep seeded hatred toward each other and it should be fantastic to watch the emotions run high.

The Canucks were defeated last year in the second round due to two major factors; secondary scoring and Luongo’s inability to win the big game.

The primary and secondary scoring for the Vancouver Canucks is greatly improved to that of last season. The Sedin twins have taken their games to another level and, more importantly, are producing in the playoffs at greater than a point per game clip. Following the Sedin example there is an abundance of offensive talent the disposal of Alain Vigneault including: Burrows, Samuelsson, Kesler, Raymond, Demitra, Wellwood, and Grabner. The versatility of these players has made it easier for Vigneault to juggle lines when the chemistry has dissipated, allowing for three lines that can produce offensively at any time.

As for the debate on the current mental and physical state of Roberto Luongo, the jury is still out. The question of Luongo’s ability to win the big game seems to have been answered after his gold medal winning Olympic performance at the 2010 Vancouver Games. Luongo is a winner and desperately wants to avenge the 7-5 result that ousted Vancouver from playoffs one year ago. He will be focused, sharp, and the Luongo of old. Compared to a playoff rookie in Antti Niemi, who has looked weak at times thus far, Luongo and the Canucks easily win the goalie battle.

The Blackhawk forwards have a good mix of youth and talent. The addition of Marian Hossa puts pressure on the best of NHL defensemen with his size and skill. Hossa, Kane, Toews and Sharp allow Chicago to roll two good scoring lines and this will present a problem for this depleted Canuck defence. If Andrew Alberts, possibly the worst Canuck to ever dawn a jersey, sees any action against this offense, he will be exploited to no end.

The defensive battle is definitely won by the Hawks with the likes of Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, and a healthy Brian Campbell. The Canucks, on the other hand, are an injury away from disaster on the back end. When Aaron Rome, Nolan Baumgartner, Lawrence Nycholat look like studs, your defence is in trouble.

The key to this series will be the play of the second and third lines, as well as, the roll players. Players such as Kesler, Burrows, Ryan Johnson and Jannik Hansen for the Canucks; and Bolland, Byfuglien, Fraser and Versteeg for the Hawks. The contributions and hard work from these types of player will win or lose this series. This category is a tie.

Prediction: I’m going to differ from Tonyz Tanti’s prediction yesterday, Canucks in 6

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This image (along with this song) has haunted Canucks fans for almost an entire calendar year. Patrick Kane, mouth guard dangling and all, scoring the insurance goal late in game 6, his third goal of the night. The Canucks insist that they should have won that series, to which I disagree (they had fewer points than Chicago, and were beaten in six!). The Hawks were the better team last year, and throughout the regular season have been the better team this year. No doubt, they are the favourites. With that said, this series should be a close one and could go either way, depending on a few keys of the series:

Traffic in Front of Luongo:

The Blackhawks were very successful last season getting traffic in front of Roberto Luongo, bumping him, falling on him (accidentally on purpose of course), basically completely throwing him off his game. The Canucks defensemen will need to make life miserable for Blackhawks wishing to crash the crease. But more importantly, Roberto Luongo needs to not let it bother him. Last year he showed his frustration, which only fueled the fire.

Traffic in Front of Niemi:

Something I never understand about teams in the playoffs is that when a team is playing a star goalie, they try to get lots of traffic in front, but when they play a mediocre goalie, they’re not so concerned with it. Just because Antti Niemi doesn’t have a great resume shouldn’t mean that the Canucks shouldn’t become concerned with screening him, bumping him, etc. He put up good numbers against the Predators in round 1, but he’s never really been tested mentally as much as he will this series. Shaking his confidence will be key.

Seabrook and Keith:

No doubt Joel Quenneville will try to get this pairing out against the Sedin line as much as possible. The Sedins will need to outplay them to win the series. It’s also important because both Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith play so many minutes. If the Sedins can tire them out or the other lines can wear them down with body checks and sustained pressure, it will go a long way to helping the Canucks’ cause.

Shutting Down the Hawks Top Guns:

The Blackhawks have a lot of fire power. Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp, etc. are very dangerous players and the Canucks will need to keep them in check. That job will be shared primarily by the Canucks defense corps. This is the biggest mismatch going into this series. With 2-3 potent scoring lines, their d-men will be tested big time. Last year the Canucks D seemed incapable of handling the Hawks speed. This year the Canucks have pretty much the same group, save for Christian Ehrhoff in for Mattias Ohlund.

The X-Factor

I believe the X-factor of this series is revenge. The Canucks seem to still be pissed off about last season’s playoff loss and they seem more mature. I also think they’re better equipped to deal with the roller coaster ride that Chicago can take you on with their crazy goal spurts.

What’s Different this Time:

Going into last season’s playoff series against the Blackhawks the Canucks were on a roll. They had ended the regular season well and steam rolled a good young St Louis Blues team. Roberto Luongo was sensational in that series.

The 2008-09 edition of the Canucks was bigger and slower than this edition. Gone are Mattias Ohlund and Mats Sundin. Willie Mitchell is gone due to injury. In are Christian Ehrhoff and Mikael Samuelsson.

As for the Blackhawks, all of their young players are a year older and a year better. Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith have gone from good young players to bonafide superstars. Hossa, Niemi and Madden are the notable additions to their lineup while Havlat, Khabibulin and Barker are the most notable players no longer with their club.

Prediction:

This is a Canucks blog but it is not a homer blog, I’m going to say Chicago in 7. The Canucks have a great opportunity to beat the Blackhawks but they will need either Kevin Bieksa to play like he hasn’t played like in two seasons or Roberto Luongo to get on a roll like he hasn’t been able to do for a few months.  Both are unlikely, which is why I believe Chicago will come out with the series victory.

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It’s that time of year again folks. Yep, the time of year that Mike Gillis tries to coax an aging Swedish future hall of fame centre to not retire and come to Vancouver. Peter Forsberg played in the Karjala Cup tournament in Helsinki this week, and is apparently contemplating a return to the NHL and possibly play in the 2010 Olympics this February. And Mike Gillis is interested.

The issue with Forsberg is of course his health. If he’s healthy, he’s still a very good player, but nagging foot problems have plagued him over the last bunch of years. So where will Forsberg land? Not Philadelphia according to reports. There are also rumours that he’s considering the KHL, but I would find that hard to believe. The Canucks should have the cap space to sign him because of Demitra’s injury, but would Forsberg consider Vancouver out of loyalty to the Avalanche? In the past he has reportedly felt that way, but lots has changed since then. Both teams have completely revamped rosters (gone are the likes of Bertuzzi, Cooke, Ruutu for the Canucks and Sakic, Roy, etc for the Avs), and are no longer the bitter rivals they once were. I’d still consider the Canucks a long shot to get him, but it sure would be nice to see him in a Vancouver uniform.

Imagine what a healthy Forsberg could do for the Vancouver lineup:

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows

Demitra-Kesler-Raymond

Samuelsson-Forsberg-Bernier

Those are three pretty potent scoring lines. If he gets injured, you throw Wellwood into his spot, and you’re back to where you are now.

TEAM 1410 Sports Radio

That’s right, there’s a new all-sports radio station in Vancouver, and it can be found on 1410 AM. It appears that it will be the home for the BC Lions as well as some US syndicated shows such as the Jim Rome Show. Pretty good idea if you ask me.

The current Team 1040 lineup has a lot of the same kind of show with the same kind of guests. I love listening to it, but sometimes it’s nice to hear about, say, the World Series instead of the Calgary Flames’ H1N1 flu shots.

Schneider in Goal Tonight

No, not Mathieu Schneider (wouldn’t be too surprising considering all the positions Canucks defencemen are playing lately), but Cory Schneider will get the start in goal tonight against Dallas. A little surprising considering how well Andrew Raycroft has been in goal this year (did you know he’s first in GAA and 2nd in SV% this year?!). The move is probably a good one, considering that the last time Raycroft played in the 2nd of back-to-back games he was pulled.

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Recently called-up Michael Grabner will make his NHL debut tonight tonight when the Canucks play the Flames. The speedy winger has been thrown right into the fire, playing the club’s chief rival on the top line with Henrik Sedin and Alex Burrows. Grabner will never get a better opportunity to succeed than this to finally prove he’s NHL worthy and he’d better excel or there may not be many chances left for the young Austrian sniper.

Lets review. He was the Canucks’ first pick, 14th overall in the 2006 entry draft. He currently sits as the only forward taken in the first round to have yet to play an NHL game. Players picked behind him include many youngsters already making a significant impact in the NHL: Claude Giroux, Simeon Varlamov, Patrik Berglund, Nick Foligno, Milan Lucic, Steve Mason and Cal Clutterbuck. Last season, he lead the Manitoba Moose in goals, notching 30 in 66 games. He has never been able to translate that success at the NHL level, preseason included. He played in a team high seven preseason games this year, scoring zero goals and one lone assist. Just for some perspective, that put him 20th (20th!) in scoring on the team.

Grabner is now 22 years old, not as young as he used to be, and is getting a chance with a team that has Daniel Sedin, Pavol Demitra and Jannik Hansen out of the lineup for significant periods of time. If he plays anywhere half decently, he should be given a long look in a scoring role. Will he succeed? Don’t bet on it. Personally, I would have liked to see Sergei Shirokov back. Shirokov grossly outplayed Grabner in the preseason and has more points in Manitoba. If Grabner can go from brutal in the preseason last month to good in the regular season, I will be pleasantly surprised.

(A little motivation for Grabner)

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